No stable weather in sight
Stable weather is not in sight in the coming days, with the most sunshine likely on Saturday. It will also be occasionally wet, especially with a warm front today (Thursday) and a cold front tomorrow night (Friday) and tomorrow morning in the south and Graubünden. There will also be intermittent precipitation, especially in the south and west on Monday. Maximum temperatures will mostly be in the single digits in the north from tomorrow, but at just under 10 degrees it won't be very cool and will still be slightly above normal for the time of year.
Lots of warm water – a snapshot
Last year, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and globally were already at record levels. There can be no talk of a trend reversal or stabilization, on the contrary. In this respect, 2024 is once again in a league of its own!
An ever earlier spring – good or bad?
One of the mildest winters on record is having an impact on nature: As has often been the case in recent years, nature has woken up very early, which is also reflected in the fact that hay fever symptoms have been on the rise for some time now and many spring flowers are already blooming in gardens and parks. Winters are becoming milder and milder as a result of climate change, which means that nature is waking up earlier and earlier and the growing season is being extended. This has a variety of effects, both positive and negative.
This week will be quite varied in terms of weather and has a lot to offer, but undisturbed sunshine will not be one of them on the northern side of the Alps. The air pressure in the Alpine region is still relatively high, but in the second half of the week we will come under the influence of an extensive low pressure system.
Extremely mild first half of February!
The first half of February was extremely mild, with an excess of between around 3 and 7 degrees and an average of more than 5 degrees across Switzerland. Temperatures were generally higher than the average for March, and locally even slightly higher than the average for April! This puts us on course for one of the mildest Februarys since records began. There was clearly too little precipitation in the north, but clearly too much in the south. Finally, the sun was shining more often than normal on the swiss plateau, but generally less often in other areas.
Still too mild for the time of year
After the first half of the month was massively too mild compared to the long-term average (more on this tomorrow), the coming days will continue to be milder than average, although the temperature level will be slightly lower from Saturday. In addition, the weather will be quite mixed and occasionally wet, especially at the beginning of the week. The weather conditions for the two women's World Cup downhill races tomorrow (Friday and Saturday) and the super-G on Sunday in Crans-Montana should be quite good overall.
Polar vortex and first spring trend
Something is happening in the stratosphere over the polar region, another "major warming" is looming. With a delay of a few weeks, this could also have an impact on our weather patterns. We are therefore taking a cautious look at the long-term models for the coming spring.
AMOC – the heating of Europe
Global flow patterns exist not only in the atmosphere, but also in the oceans. These span the entire world and connect all the oceans with each other. In addition to winds and the Coriolis force, thermohaline circulation is the main driving force behind this. A new study on the possible overturning of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) means that it is now back in the headlines. But what exactly is this about?
No sign of winter
Compared to last week, it may have cooled down slightly recently, but there's no sign of real winter weather. And that won't change this week, on the contrary!
Low pressure weather over the weekend
Until the weekend, our weather will essentially be determined by a low pressure system located in the nearby Atlantic/Great Britain. It will bring us a lot of precipitation in the south, with southerly to south-westerly high winds at the southern slope of the Alps until Saturday, while in the north it will bring a foehn wind and only a little rain. In the night to Sunday, the foehn will break down and it will also be wet in the north. On Sunday, the precipitation will move eastwards again relatively quickly. At the beginning of the coming week, the air pressure will rise, but initially the air will still be somewhat humid, but from the middle of the week it will be drier again, especially at higher altitudes. From Sunday, especially from Tuesday, temperatures will be somewhat lower in the north, but without it becoming exceptionally cool.