The weather in Switzerland will continue to be very changeable this week in a south-westerly to westerly direction, with more sunshine and less precipitation in the first half of the week than in the second half. With temperatures of 8 to 13 degrees in the north, the snow line is likely to be mostly between around 800 and 1500 meters, so snow is still not expected in the Swiss Plateau. However, there will be more fresh snow in the mountains, especially from Thursday. In addition, it will remain largely frost-free in many places in the Swiss Plateau, so the first frost is still a long way off. As it will hardly be stable in the following week either, the frequently occurring stable phase in the first half of November (known as Martini Summer) is likely to fail this year.
Little precipitation until midweek
After the first few days of November were already very changeable, this week too will not see stable weather within a south-westerly to westerly pattern. At least we expect longer sunny spells in the north today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday). However, there will also be occasional denser clouds and isolated downpours. With maximum temperatures of around 13 degrees today and 11 degrees tomorrow, the snow line will be around 1500 meters today and 1300 meters tomorrow, but there won't be much precipitation and thus fresh snow on the mountains. In the south, it will be mostly dry and quite sunny today and tomorrow, with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures of around 13 to 14 degrees. On Wednesday, a lot of sunshine can be expected temporarily throughout Switzerland, with temperatures in the Swiss Plateau only just above 0 degrees in the morning and some frost on the ground. However, it will probably still not be enough for the first frost at 2 meters above ground (air frost) this autumn. Nevertheless, it would be high time for this in the long term, as on average the first air frost in the Swiss Plateau occurs at the end of October to the beginning of November.
More wet in the north from Thursday to Saturday
From Thursday to Saturday, precipitation is expected to become more frequent in the north, with the high-altitude current turning from southwest to northwest and increasingly cooler air flowing in, causing temperatures to drop slightly, especially in the mountains. The snow line is likely to be around 1000 meters or slightly lower on Saturday. The weather will be very unsettled and occasionally wet from Thursday afternoon, but we won't have to do without the sun completely. There will also be some fresh snow on the mountains, which should please winter sports resorts in particular (see Fig. 1). In addition, there will be a short and not too pronounced Foehn phase in the northern Alpine valleys during the night to Thursday and on Thursday morning, which will also put more pressure on the south such that some rain is also to be expected during Thursday. After a partly cloudy Friday, the south will be protected on Saturday by the prevailing north-westerly conditions, meaning that plenty of sunshine can be expected here.
Fig. 1: On the mountains there will be more fresh snow, especially from Thursday to Saturday (current picture of the Churfirsten); Source: Roger Perret
Unclear development from Sunday, but hardly stable
From Sunday onwards, the various weather models will diverge greatly from one another, but the upper-level current will probably turn back to the southwest, bringing in milder air, especially at higher altitudes. However, it is unclear how stable the weather will be, but what all the data have in common is that it is unlikely to remain stable for much longer and new disturbances are likely to reach us again soon.
Probably not a Martini Summer this year
Towards the end of the first decade of November, southern Central Europe often experiences a period of fine weather with a stable high, which is known as Martini Summer or Martin Summer. This is particularly true for the mountains, as the Swiss Plateau are often covered by a lake of cold air with fog or high fog at this time of year. From a meteorological point of view, Martini Summer belongs to the so-called singularities, i.e. it represents a weather pattern that occurs with a certain regularity at this time of year, such as the ice saints, the sheep cold, the dog days or the Christmas thaw. According to the statements made above, however, the Martini Summer will probably fail to materialize this year.
Finally, an overview of the weather today and in the coming days until next Sunday (see Fig. 2 and 3).
Fig. 2: Weather today Monday; Source: MeteoNews
Fig. 3: Weather outlook tomorrow Tuesday to Sunday; Source: MeteoNews
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